The market opened with a gap up, largely driven by the official confirmation of the US–India trade deal. Earlier, on 3rd February, the initial announcement had triggered a sharp gap of over 1,400 points, but that move lacked confirmation. Today’s gap of roughly 200+ points felt more measured, as it came after formal signing.
However, uncertainty still lingers around India’s purchase of Russian oil. The possibility of tariffs being reintroduced if purchases resume, along with the lack of clear communication—where statements are being deflected between ministries—adds an element of policy overhang. While my sense is that India may avoid direct purchases going forward, this remains a headline risk, and with current geopolitics, outcomes can change quickly. Time will tell how this evolves.
From a market perspective, there was very little to trade intraday. Price action remained compressed, with most moves capped within 30–40 points, offering poor risk–reward. With expiry approaching tomorrow, it also felt like price was being intentionally pinned within a narrow range, possibly by operators managing expiry dynamics.
Another notable observation was that volume continued to dry up, reinforcing the lack of genuine participation. Given the structure, volatility, and reward profile, this was effectively a no-trade day from an intraday standpoint.
In the final five minutes, I initiated a BTST position for the next session:
17 Feb 25850 PE @ 148
This was a positional bet rather than an intraday trade, taken with the expectation that expiry-related moves or overnight developments could provide momentum.