The day after the Budget, following the initial 15 minutes of volatility, the market started to consolidate and gradually formed a declining channel on the intraday chart.
Around 1:15 PM, price broke out of the channel decisively and moved up nearly 79 points. This move, however, failed to sustain. By 2:20 PM, the index had corrected the entire 79-point rise, breaking down again from near the immediate resistance zone.
Looking at the session as a whole, the market effectively offered only one or two quality trading opportunities:
- The channel breakout around mid-day
- The breakdown near resistance later in the session
Beyond these, the rest of the day was largely noise and consolidation.
From a trading perspective, the focus should have been on waiting patiently for these two setups, instead of engaging in low-probability, risky trades inside the range. This is easier to say after market close, when the full structure is visible. However, even in real time, the declining channel and nearby resistance were clear reference points that could have guided decision-making.
One important consideration was the possibility of fake breakouts. Hence, volume confirmation and disciplined stop-loss placement were essential to manage risk effectively.